Prediction Model of Production Patterns of Shallot Development in Low and Medium Plains Regions, Indonesia

Abstract

Background and Objective: Shallots have the potential to be developed but production is not optimal in terms of continuity and stability. Structuring production patterns should be a priority for farmers in onion farming. This study aims to map production patterns and create predictive models of production patterns in low and middle land areas to provide product stability. The method used in this study is a fuzzy logic approach based on ANFIS. Materials and Methods: The data used include time-series data, written information, input variables of production patterns, cropping pattern systems, production patterns, needs with shallot production development output variables. This research was conducted in Majalengka Regency in the low and middle lands. Results: The results showed that the prediction of the production pattern of the shallot cropping pattern was more focused on adjusting to the needs of use and consumption value, the low and middle land areas in the first quarter of consumption production were greater than seeds and in the third quarter these two regions were able to balance production for consumption and consumption needs, seeds. In the low-lying areas in the second quarter, the emphasis was on seed production of 70%, in the middle-land areas the emphasis was on 60% consumption of shallots, 20% industry and 20% seeds. Conclusion: Recommendations in the implementation of various strategies are expected through the establishment of a planting pattern information centre, the creation of new market opportunities, partnership patterns, expansion of planting areas.