Evaluation of the informational capacity of accounting and fiscal statements in the secondary market for Brazilian government bonds

Abstract

This study proposes to evaluate the informational capacity of accounting and fiscal statements based on the construction of models that make it possible to identify the relationship between a group of representative variables and the pricing of Brazilian government bonds. To accomplish this, we examined the historic series of interest rates in purchases of the main government bonds and 43 other accounting and fiscal variables from 2010 to 2018. After estimating the parameters using linear regression models, the results suggest that information in the Federal Balance Sheet (BGU), Treasury Transparency reports (TT), the Federal Fiscal Management Report (RGF), and information from the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB), has the capacity to predict, reflect, and/or confirm the expectations of investors in government bonds. The practical implications of these findings will contribute as references to improve the communication of government accounting and fiscal information to the main stakeholders, especially investors in government bonds. Moreover, this presents the potential of each of these reports, making it possible to use this complementary information to plan and accompany the federal government’s asset and fiscal situation.