The power of the leader: Party approval and institutional trust

Abstract

Unprecedented in American politics, several Republican US Representatives, supported by former President Trump, led a motion in the House to remove the Speaker, providing an ideal case for understanding a strong leader’s control over the party base, conflation with the party brand, and ramifications for the health of the US party system. Leveraging this unique event, we conducted an original survey experiment of registered Republican voters to analyze how awareness of the leader’s approval influences their assessment of the ouster, approval of their party, and trust in the House. We argue that if a leader’s hold over the base and association between him and the party brand remains strong, his endorsement should boost Republican voters’ approval of the ouster, their party, and trust in the US House. We find consistent empirical support for these expectations, with significant implications for the leader -- party -- constituent relationship and the health of the American party system.