Fuzzy Logic and measles vaccination: Designing a control strategy

Abstract

Background: The State of Sao Paulo, the most populous in Brazil, was virtually free of measles from 1987 until the end of 1996 when the number of cases started to rise. It reached alarming numbers in the middle of 1997 and local health authorities decided to implement a mass vaccination campaign. Methods: Fuzzy Decision Making techniques are applied to the design of the vaccination campaign. Results: The mass vaccination strategy chosen changed the natural course of the epidemic. It had a significant impact on the epidemic in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo city, but a second epidemic in the State's interior forced the public health authorities to implement a second mass vaccination campaign 2 months after the first. Conclusions: Fuzzy Logic techniques are a powerful tool for the design of control strategies against epidemics of infectious diseases.