Are local climate assemblies politically representative of the macro-public they represent, and does this matter?

Abstract

Using the results of a follow-up survey circulated to the participants of the Herefordshire Citizens Climate Assembly (HCCA), I compare their stated political identity with the political makeup of the county of Herefordshire (the macro public from which they were drawn) using probability testing based on a hypergeometric distribution. I also assess recent recruitment data for three other climate-themed deliberative citizens panels, to determine whether political party allegiance affects volunteer rate. I conclude that there were significantly fewer Conservative voters than would have been needed for the HCCA to be politically representative of the wider population from which its members were drawn. This is mirrored in the recruitment data for the three more recent climate-themed deliberative citizens panels, where Conservative voters systematically ‘under-volunteered’ to take part compared to supporters of left-leaning parties. I consider the potential reasons for this disparity in representation between participants of differing political identities, and make recommendations relating to recruitment for future assemblies.