On Passenger Flow Estimation for new Urban Railways

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss the questions, associated with the forecast for passenger traffic for urban railways. The aim of the study is to select and verify the model for predicting passenger traffic of new urban railways. The article is based on the practical tasks implemented during the project phase for new urban railways in Moscow, Russia. We are considering data sources for building the forecast, as well as practical models that can be used to obtain numerical estimates. Among the discussed data sources, we target migration data that can be collected with the help of telecommunications operators, and information on the use of public transport, obtained from the validation of transport cards. Also, in this paper, we investigate the metrics for traffic along the new city rail line, which can be determined on the basis of the projected passenger traffic. The result of the work was the constructed model of the transport behavior of passengers, taking into account the availability of new urban railways and a set of metrics for assessing the functioning of this transport tool.