Bolivia's “Democracy in Transition”: More Questions than Answers in 2016

Abstract

On 21 February 2016, an absolute majority of Bolivian voters (51.3%) voted against a constitutional revision that would clear the way for President Morales to assume a fourth term in office. Evaluating the municipal level change in pro-MAS vote share over previous elections, I find that the pro-government vote share declined most dramatically in traditional MAS electoral strongholds, particularly those with high concentrations of mine workers or indigenous voters. This, along with numerous other challenges to the MAS institutional hegemony, begs larger questions about the future of the MAS as a political coalition, and about Bolivia’s “democracy in transition.”