Insulin resistance and inflammation predict kinetic body weight changes in response to dietary weight loss and maintenance in overweight and obese subjects by using a Bayesian network approach1-4

Abstract

Background: The ability to identify obese subjects who will lose weight in response to energy restriction is an important strategy in obesity treatment. Objective: We aimed to identify obese subjects who would lose weight and maintain weight loss through 6 wk of energy restriction and 6 wk of weight maintenance. Design: Fifty obese or overweight subjects underwent a 6-wk energyrestricted, high-protein diet followed by another 6 wk of weight maintenance. Network modeling by using combined biological, gut microbiota, and environmental factors was performed to identify predictors of weight trajectories. Results: On the basis of body weight trajectories, 3 subject clusters were identified. Clusters A and B lost more weight during energy restriction. During the stabilization phase, cluster A continued to lose weight, whereas cluster B remained stable. Cluster C lost less and rapidly regained weight during the stabilization period. At baseline, cluster C had the highest plasma insulin, interleukin (IL)-6, adipose tissue inflammation (HAM56+ cells), and Lactobacillus/Leuconostoc/Pediococcus numbers in fecal samples. Weight regain after energy restriction correlated positively with insulin resistance (homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance: r = 0.5, P = 0.0002) and inflammatory markers (IL-6; r = 0.43, P = 0.002) at baseline. The Bayesian network identified plasma insulin, IL-6, leukocyte number, and adipose tissue (HAM56) at baseline as predictors that were sufficient to characterize the 3 clusters. The prediction accuracy reached 75.5%. Conclusion: The resistance to weight loss and proneness to weight regain could be predicted by the combination of high plasma insulin and inflammatory markers before dietary intervention. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01314690. Am J Clin Nutr 2013;98:1385-94. © 2013 American Society for Nutrition.