Spatial and temporal pattern of rice yield growth in Asian countries from 1961 to 2016: An exploratory econometric analysis

Abstract

The present paper attempts to find out the spatial and temporal movement of rice yield in twelve countries in Asia which is its lifeline over the period 1961 to 2016 by following Bai-Perron multiple structural break tests. The results based on endogenous multiple structural break analysis show that many of these countries passed through several phases of acceleration and deceleration in rice yield over this period The results also demonstrate that except Japan, all the twelve countries considered in our study experienced at least one structural break in rice yield at level during the period 1961 to 2016. The acceleration phases of rice yield growth observed mostly during 1970's and 1980's are resulted from improved technological innovations in agriculture whereas deceleration phases observed in the last two decades are mainly caused by environmental challenges on rice production. Cross country yield gaps have been showing declining trend since early 80's.