Population cycles revisited

Abstract

Periodic fluctuations or cycles in populations of small mammals have been widely studied, but much controversy still exists about their causes. Cycles of voles and lemmings are produced by the integrated effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors, and the problem is to define accurately how these interact. Spacing behavior is a key component of population regulation in voles and lemmings, and this is illustrated most dramatically by the fence effect. We do not know which mechanisms produce changes in social behavior. Phenotypic changes produced by maternal effects or stress are now believed most likely, but there has been too little work done on genetic effects on spacing and we know almost nothing about kin-related social behavior in voles and lemmings. Both predation and food supply may be the extrinsic factors involved in cyclic population dynamics. Single-factor experiments suggest that food shortage by itself does not seem to be a necessary factor for cycles nor does predation, but the interaction between food and predation could be a key variable in understanding how extrinsic factors affect cycles of voles. Cycles of snowshoe hares are caused by an interaction between predation and food supplies, possibly integrated through risk-sensitive foraging. Spacing behavior is not a component of cycles of hares because snowshoe hares differ from voles and lemmings in having no known form of spacing behavior that can produce social mortality. The short-term cycle of voles and lemmings thus seems to have a different explanation from the long-term cycle of snowshoe hares. In some places, lemmings may be locked in a predator-pit at low density. Experimental exclusion of predators improved survival of adults in a population of collared lemmings, but was not sufficient to allow them to escape the predator-pit because of losses of juveniles. Whether cyclic populations of lemmings also fall into a predator-pit in the low phase remains to be determined. The low phase does not occur in every cycle and it is particularly difficult to explain. Progress in analyzing cyclic fluctuations has been made most rapidly when we define clear alternative hypotheses and carry out experimental manipulations on field populations. Much remains to be done on these small mammals.