Changes of inward and outward FDI stocks in Poland and the stage of the investment development path

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to analyze changes of inward and outward foreign direct investments (FDI) stocks in Poland in the years 1994–2016 in the field of the theory of J. H. Dunning`s investment development path (IDP). The following research hypothesis was adopted: If a persistent reduction of net outward FDI stock (NOI) to 0 is accompanied by economic growth (GDP growth, GDP per capita, structural changes in the economy), then it will be possible to achieve stage 3 of the IDP.The results of empirical research indicate that the changes of NOI accompanying economic development in 1994–2016 were insufficient to confirm full advancement of IDP stage 3 in Poland. We do not observe a definite change in the NOI and economic development stage from stage 2 to 3. Nevertheless, we can support that some changes occur that prove that the economy is at the beginning of stage 3, as the following symptoms are observed: a drop in the levels of NOI, NOI per capita and an increase in the outward performance index (OPI). Considering that stages 1 and 2 continued nearly for 10 years each, the confirmation of stage 3 is likely after 2022. Then we will have empirical data for the period 2013–2022.