Projection of glacier mass changes under a high-emission climate scenario using the global glacier model HYOGA2

Abstract

We report a time series (1948-2010) of global-scale meltwater from mountain glaciers and ice caps estimated by the global glacier model HYOGA2. HYOGA2 calculates the temporal flucuation of the mass balance for 24,234 individual glaciers worldwide. It covers 90% of the total glacier area, except for glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica. HYOGA2 also accounts for regionally distributed changes in glacier area and altitude associated with glacier retreat and advance. By computation of individual glacier changes, future dissipation and glacier mass and area changes can be simulated in the model. The cumulative volume loss of water between 1948 and 2005 was estimated to be 25.9+/-1.4 mm sea level equialent (SLE). A future projection under a high-emission scenario demonstrated significant lossees of water from MGI equivalent to 60.3+/-7.9 mm SLE between 1948 and 2060 and 99.0+/-14.9 mm SLE between 1948 and 2099.