Changes in the tax structure and their impact on economic growth in the Republic of Croatia based on the VAR model

Abstract

In Croatia, the social security system is based on generational solidarity, i.e. payment of contributions, which is known as pay as you go (PAYG), but the balance of its functioning is permanently and significantly disturbed by long-term unfavourable demographic processes. Projections show that the worrying demographic situation will deteriorate even further and that, with low birth and fertility rates and negative natural growth, negative net migration will contribute to further depopulation. In addition, contributions directly burden labour, i.e. they increase labour costs for employers and reduce their competitiveness in the marketplace, affecting economic growth. The paper reviews empirical research on the impact of different tax structures on economic growth, the sublimated conclusion of which is that direct taxes have a negative effect on growth, while indirect taxes are neutral. The Croatian tax system, with VAT as the main factor in the tax structure, is focused on taxing consumption, but is also characterized by a high level of levies. In this paper, the authors use the vector autoregression model to analyse the relationship between economic growth and the changed tax structure of the Republic of Croatia, in which the role of indirect taxes would be more emphasized. Data in model are consist of different types of taxes, GDPpc, population growth, gross fixed capital formation, unemployment rate and cover the time period from 2004 to 2019. The authors prove that the reduction of the tax burden through direct taxes has positive economic, demographic and fiscal effects.