The role of high cycle fatigue (HCF) onset in Francis runner reliability

Abstract

High Cycle Fatigue (HCF) plays an important role in Francis runner reliability. This paper presents a model in which reliability is defined as the probability of not exceeding a threshold above which HCF contributes to crack propagation. In the context of combined Low Cycle Fatigue (LCF) and HCF loading, the Kitagawa diagram is used as the limit state threshold for reliability. The reliability problem is solved using First-Order Reliability Methods (FORM). A study case is proposed using in situ measured strains and operational data. All the parameters of the reliability problem are based either on observed data or on typical design specifications. From the results obtained, we observed that the uncertainty around the defect size and the HCF stress range play an important role in reliability. At the same time, we observed that expected values for the LCF stress range and the number of LCF cycles have a significant influence on life assessment, but the uncertainty around these values could be neglected in the reliability assessment. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.