Climate change scenarios for Estonia based on climate models from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Abstract

Climate change scenarios were created for Estonia by employing the SRES (= Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios and general circulation model (GCM) outputs used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) and presented at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre. Control simulations were explored for the estimation of the suitability of different GCMs to describe climatic conditions in Estonia. Comparing the modelled and observed monthly mean temperatures and precipitation during 1961-1990, better-quality GCM outputs were selected for further analysis. Climate change scenarios based on GCMs were created for Estonia for the period 2070-2099. The mean projected increase in air temperature was 3-4 K; it was slightly higher in winter than in summer. All models revealed some warming in all months. The projections of precipitation were more variable. The mean increase in annual precipitation was estimated to be mostly between 10% and 20%. An increase in precipitation was uniformly predicted for the cold season, while a variety of possible changes existed in summer. Some models projected even a decrease in precipitation in July, August and September.