Human Influence on the Increasing Drought Risk Over Southeast Asian Monsoon Region

Abstract

Southeast Asian monsoon region is regularly stricken by drought, but less attention is paid due to its slow-onset and less visual impact. This study investigated the observed drought changes over Southeast Asian monsoon region and impacts of anthropogenic forcing using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models. We revealed an increasing drought risk for 1951–2018 due to more frequent and wide-spread droughts. The influence of anthropogenic forcing is successfully detected, which has increased the likelihood of the extreme droughts in historical simulation by reducing precipitation and enhancing evapotranspiration. The time of emergence of anthropogenic forcing in extreme drought occurrence and affected area occurs around the 1960s. The future projected severe and extreme drought risks are still beyond natural only forced changes under all scenarios. Our findings demonstrate a robust impact of anthropogenic forcing on drought risk over Southeast Asia, and highlight the importance of future pathway choice.