Klimato kaitos įtakos Lietuvos vandens ištekliams tyrimai

Abstract

In 1957, the Laboratory of Hydrology under the leadership of the famous Lithuanian hydrologist professor Lasinskas began an extensive research of Lithuanian water bodies. A large number of different studies have been performed, important monographs have been published. In the last decades, the main research objects of the laboratory have remained the same; how­ ever, the research topics change, much longer datasets of hydrological data are available, and the modern research methods are applied. The article presents the contribution of the Laboratory of Hydrology (of Lithuanian Energy Institute) to the development of hydrology science; the most significant studies of the last decade related to climate change impact on Lithuanian water resources (rivers and the Curonian Lagoon) are described. An analysis of Lithuanian river runoff and the Curonian Lagoon water balance in the past was performed. Statistical methods helped identifying the changes of river runoff and its extreme values that already occurred. The prognosis of the river runoff in the Nemunas Basin area (that covers 75% of the Lithuanian territory) was accomplished applying the hydrological model HBV and using two global climate models (Echam5 and HadCM3) and three emission scenarios (A2, A1B, B1). The changes of the Curonian Lagoon water balance in the 21st century were assessed.