The changing geography of support for European integration in the shadow of the Ukraine war

Abstract

External crises have recently placed European governments under significant pressure, prompting deeper supranational cooperation in search of effective policy solutions. This paper investigates how such crises shape citizens' support for supranational policies, and how this effect varies geographically. We analyse the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on public attitudes toward European integration across 229 regions in four key policy domains. Using geocoded data from eight Eurobarometer surveys (July 2020–June 2023) and an event-study design, we find that individuals living closer to the Russian border became more supportive of common European defence and foreign policies, as well as EU enlargement. In contrast, the energy crisis triggered only a short-lived increase in support for a common EU energy policy. These results underscore the spatial dimension of geopolitical shocks and provide evidence for a functionalist interpretation of public attitudes toward European integration.