Study on the spatial and temporal characteristics of mesoscale drought in China under future climate change scenarios

Abstract

In this study, precipitation, and temperature data from HadGEM2-ES under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to evaluate drought in China in the 21st century. The K-means clustering algorithm was used to analyze the regional characteristics of the dry hazard index (DHI) in China, and the impact of climate change on the variation trend and periodicity of regional drought in China was explored. The results show that the temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) of all clusters have an increasing trend under the two RCPs, and the precipitation of most clusters shows a significantly increasing trend. The drought index calcu-lated by the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is higher than those calcu-lated by the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized effective precipitation evapo-transpiration index (SP*ETI). The variation trends of drought intensity and frequency in China are not significant in the 21st century; however, the local variation trends are significant. The droughts in most parts of the Xinjiang Province, northern Tibet and western Qinghai Province show significantly increasing trends. According to the DHI analyses and the variations in the drought area ratio, with increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, the droughts in central and western China will become more severe, and drought will spread to the eastern areas of China. In the case that both precipitation and temperature may increase in the future, the increase in evapotranspiration caused by temperature rise will greatly affect drought dynamics. The main drought periodicity in China in the 21st century is 1~3.6 years. Drought is affected by climate change but not significantly.