Numerical simulation of storm surge associated with severe cyclonic storms in the bay of Bengal during 2008-11

Abstract

Storm surge disasters cause heavy loss of life and property, damage to the coastal structures and the losses of agriculture in India and its neighborhood whenever a tropical cyclone approaches. About 3,00,000 lives were lost in one of the most severe cyclone that hit Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) in November 1970. The Andhra Cyclone devastated the eastern coast of India, killing about 10,000 persons in November 1977. Orissa coast of India was struck by a severe cyclonic storm in October 1999, killing more than 15000 people besides enormous loss to the property in the region. More recently the Nargis cyclone of May 2008 killed about 1,40,000 people in Myanmar as well as caused enormous property damage. These and most of the world's greatest human disasters associated with the tropical cyclones have been directly attributed to storm surges. Thus, provision of precise prediction and warning of storm surges is of great interest in the region. The main objective of the present paper is to highlight the recent developments in storm surge prediction model for the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Paper also describes the performance of the model in forecasting/simulating the surges associated with severe cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal during 2008 to 2011.