Russian Rivers Streamflow Forecasting Using Hydrograph Extrapolation Method

Abstract

This paper presents a method of hydrograph extrapolation, intended for simple and efficient streamflow forecasting with up to 10 days lead time. The forecast of discharges or water levels is expressed by a linear formula depending on their values on the date of the forecast release and the five previous days. Such forecast techniques were developed for more than 2700 stream gauging stations across Russia. Forecast verification has shown that this method can be successfully applied to large rivers with a smooth shape of hydrographs, while for small mountain catchments, the accuracy of the method tends to be lower. The method has been implemented into real-time continuous operations in the Hydrometcentre of Russia. In the territory of Russia, 18 regions have been identified with a single dependency of the maximum lead time of good forecasts on the area and average slope of the catchment surface for different catchments of each region; the possibilities of forecasting river streamflow by the method of hydrograph extrapolation are approximately estimated. The proposed method can be considered as a first approximation while solving the problem of forecasting river flow in conditions of a lack of meteorological information or when it is necessary to quickly develop a forecasting system for a large number of catchments.