THE RISK MANAGEMENT OF ISLAMIC TERRORISM IN A FRAGILE STATE: THE CASE OF MOZAMBIQUE

Abstract

Islamic terrorism has been a serious threat for Eastern and Southern Africa since the 1990s. Many of these African countries have developed different forms of struggle against Islamic terrorism, from a military intervention to social policies, in order to improve the general socio-economic conditions for society as a whole. In Mozambique, no specific measure was adopted to cope the diffusion of terrorism, leaving that radicalized forms of Islamism spread in particular in Cabo Delgado, a Northern Province bordering with Tanzania. Research aimed at approaching Islamic terrorism in Cabo Delgado according to the strategy of risk prevention and risk management by Mozambican State. This study demonstrates that during the second term of Guebuza as a Chief of State, Mozambique had to face three different, potential threats. Nevertheless, Mozambican government identified two of these threats as a priority (namely Somali piracy in Mozambique Channel and Renamo´s action), neglecting possible Islamic terrorist attacks in Cabo Delgado Province. This study demonstrates – using privileged witnesses as well as open sources available in the public sphere - that this choice was typical of a fragile and authoritarian State. Firstly, it was not based on an objective risk analysis, but on political as well as on patrimonial interests of political elite, and secondly local civil society could not oppose any resistance. This choice allowed radical Islamic groups to grow undisturbed in Cabo Delgado, until carrying out violent attacks from October 2017, which Mozambican government seems unable to counter until today. Keywords: Cabo Delgado Province, Mozambican State, religious extremism, risk prevention.