Development of a multivariate model focused on the analysis of water availability in Mexico

Abstract

The present study proposes developing a multivariate model that predicts water availability in Mexico through 26 variables related to aquifers, renewable water, demographic character-istics, rivers and basins, dams, and irrigation factors. The information inherent to them was ex-tracted from the platform of the national water system using records from the 13 administrative hydrological regions between 2010 and 2017. The model is based on the multiple linear regression model and the variable selection method. The results show different versions of the model con-trasted concerning the statistical assumptions of the multiple regression. Although the findings pre-sented have implications in the development of strategies focused on a better distribution of the vital liquid, in the face of various projected scenarios based on the variables analyzed, it should be noted that the progressive improvement of the model was carried out through the use of techniques such as the transformation of variables, detection, and elimination of outliers. The final result is water availability in the face of various drought conditions explained by a model with 16 relevant variables. Said prediction model is helpful for the generation of drought mitigation strategies.