The political effects of London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone

Abstract

The unexpected defeat of the Labour Party in a recent by-election has been attributed to the expansion of London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ). Employing a difference-in-difference methodology across two phases of ULEZ expansion and examining three sets of elections, we find inconsistent political effects. In all three election scenarios, we observe relatively minor effects for the incumbent Labour Party. Support for both the Green Party and the Conservative Party fluctuated. Complementary individual-level analysis using UKHLS data reveals no discernible political party support effects stemming from the ULEZ expansion announcement in 2017 on those with non-compliant cars relative to the rest of the population. Our study suggests caution in generalising the political effects of green policies from mixed evidence in a single case, while contributing to the growing body of research on the complexities of public response to environmentally focused legislation.