A dinâmica demográfica e a sustentabilidade do regime geral de previdência social Brasileiro

Abstract

This paper aims at studying the effects of demographic dynamics in the sustainability of Brazilian Social Security General Policy (Regime Geral da Previdência Social - RGPS), taking into account the changes observed in the age structure of the Brazilian population and of taxpayers and beneficiaries of RGPS. About the factors related with demographic dynamics, the results show a falling tendency in the number of younger people and an increase in the number of older people, highlighting the change in the ratio between age groups. Concerning social security accounts, in 2011 there was less than 5% of chance of the social security result be balanced, and in the period 2012-2030 there are evidences that the demographic dynamics will increase up to five times the need for financing observed in 2003.