Managing Urban Air Pollution through Low Emission Zones: A Health and Economic Assessment in Wroclaw, Poland

Abstract

Air pollution is the major environmental health threat, leading to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, premature mortality, and large economic burdens. Consequently, Low Emission Zones (LEZs) have widely been implemented across European cities, with the main objective of reducing air pollution by prohibiting access to high-emission vehicles. The present study evaluates the impact of an LEZ on air quality, health cost, and economic burdens in Wroclaw, Poland. We applied detailed spatial modeling using the ADMS-Urban model to simulate pollution levels. Our findings show that by 2035 citywide annual mean NO₂ declines by 23.1% compared to 2022 (from 26.04 to 20.04 µg/m3). About 15% points of this decrease come from baseline fleet turnover and about 8% points are attributable to the LEZ. These air quality improvements bring meaningful health benefits, such as fewer chronic disease-related deaths (16.5% decrease) and fewer bronchitis cases in children (13.9% decrease). These health improvements translate into estimated annual economic savings of approximately €55 million. However, impacts on PM2.5 pollution levels are small, with minimal decreases observed across the city. Moreover, O3 concentrations increase by 5.0% in the LEZ and 6.3% citywide, highlighting the complex photochemical interactions that influence urban air quality. These findings emphasize the differentiated effects of LEZs on air pollution, with clear benefits for NO₂ reduction and associated health outcomes but limited impact on PM2.5 and O₃ concentrations.