Combining the strengths of statistical and dynamical modeling approaches for forecasting Australian seasonal rainfall

Abstract

Forecasting rainfall at the seasonal time scale is highly challenging. Seasonal rainfall forecasts are typically made using statistical or dynamical models. The two types of models have different strengths, and their combination has the potential to increase forecast skill. In this study, statistical-dynamical forecasts of Australian seasonal rainfall are assessed. Statistical rainfall forecasts are made based on observed relationships with lagged climate indices. Dynamical forecasts are made by calibrating raw outputs from multiple general circulation models. The statistical and dynamical forecasts are then merged using a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method. The skill and reliability of the forecasts is assessed through cross-validation for the period 1980-2010. We confirm that the dynamical and statistical groups of models give skill in different locations and seasons and the merged statistical-dynamical forecasts represent a significant improvement in terms of maximizing spatial and temporal coverage of skillfulness. We find that the merged statistical-dynamical forecasts are reliable in representing forecast uncertainty. © 2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.