Performance and Efficiency Trade-Offs in Brazilian Passenger Vehicle Fleet

Abstract

The rate of technological progress is an important metric used for predicting the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of future light-duty fleets. A trade-off between efficiency and performance is essential due to its implications on fuel consumption and efficiency improvement. These values are not directly available in the Brazilian fleet. Hence, this is the main gap in knowledge that has to be overcome. Tendencies in all relevant parameters were also unknown, and we have traced them as well, established on several publications data and models. We estimate the three indicators mentioned above for the Brazilian fleet from 1990 to 2020. Although the rate of technological progress was lower in Brazil than that in developed countries, it has increased from 0.39% to 0.61% to 1.7% to 1.9% in subsequent decades. Performance improvements offset approximately 31% to 39% of these efficiency gains. Moreover, the vehicle market is shifting toward larger vehicles, thus offsetting some efficiency improvements. We predict the fleet fuel efficiency for the years 2030 and 2035 using the above-mentioned factors. The predicted values for efficiency can vary by a factor of two. Thus, trade-off policies play a vital role in steering toward the desired goals of reducing the transportation sector’s impact on the environment.