Uncertainty analysis of energy production for a 3×50MW AC photovoltaic project based on solar resources

Abstract

Access to solar energy is a prerequisite to remedy CO2 and improve the standard of human living. Green solar energy is only an immediate solution to add its zero emission profile and provide carbon footprint reduction benefits. This energy does not emit greenhouse gases which means it is a renewable free source of energy when producing electricity. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the accurate annul energy production data reducing uncertainty in solar energy estimates. This work investigated the solar energy assessment taking into account a detailed solar resource and energy production assessment for a 3 × 50 MW PV project with uncertainty analysis. The authors defined a total uncertainty of energy production which is estimated at 9.5% for one year and 8.9% for ten years as well as future variability of 3.4% for one year and 1.1% for ten years. The annual power degradation and expected energy production over the plant lifespan at dissimilar 99%, 90%, 75%, 60%, 50%, and 25% probability of surplus are also observed in this paper.