Projected impact of a plant-derived vaccine on the burden of seasonal influenza in Canada

Abstract

Objective: The analysis estimates projected population outcomes resulting from the introduction of a plant-derived influenza vaccine formulated as quadrivalent virus-like particles (QVLP) in Canada. Methods: Using Monte Carlo simulations, the number of influenza cases, general practitioner visits, inpatient admissions, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and deaths due to influenza-associated illness were estimated under no vaccination, plant-derived QVLP vaccines only, or egg-derived vaccines only. The base case analysis examined the adult Canadian population in two subgroups: 18–64 years of age during the 2017/18 season and 65+ years of age during the 2018/19 season. Efficacy data were obtained from QVLP clinical trials. Vaccine effectiveness data for egg-derived vaccines were calculated from observational studies from the corresponding influenza seasons. Scenario analyses examined the impact of varying absolute vaccine effectiveness or vaccination coverage from base case inputs. Results: In the base case analysis, plant-derived QVLP vaccines led to an additional reduction in the burden of influenza over egg-derived vaccines for both population subgroups. In the 18–64 subgroup, QVLP vaccines were associated with 2.63% (48,029; 95% credible interval [Crl]: 42,723–53,336) fewer influenza cases than egg-derived vaccines. In the 65+ subgroup, QVLP vaccines led to 4.82% (27,918; 95% Crl: 25,440–30,397) fewer influenza cases, and reductions in the number of inpatient admissions by 4.77% (1167; 95% CrI: 851–1483) and deaths by 4.75% (326; 95% CrI: 107–546) compared to egg-derived vaccines. Further reductions were observed in scenario analyses considering the potential increase in vaccine coverage. Conclusion: Use of plant-derived QVLP influenza vaccines may contribute to greater reductions in influenza cases and influenza-related outcomes, including inpatient admissions and deaths, compared to egg-derived vaccines currently available in Canada.