A National, Ecological Study on the Impact of Extreme Precipitation on Walking and Cycling to Work, 2005–2018

Abstract

Limited research has examined how increasing extreme precipitation affects active transportation across the United States. This study assesses the longitudinal relationship between extreme precipitation and walking and cycling to work in the context of rising extreme weather and flooding. We conducted a county-level longitudinal analysis using data from the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (2005–2018). Five-year estimates of walking and cycling to work among adults aged 16 years and older were obtained from the American Community Survey, and annual population-weighted averages of days with extreme precipitation (≥2 inches) were derived from the North American Land Data Assimilation System. Mixed-effects models with restricted maximum likelihood estimation assessed associations with active transportation, accounting for county-level clustering and adjusting for year, region, poverty rate, water cover, metropolitan status, and park access. Across 3142 U.S. counties, extreme precipitation days increased over time, while walking and cycling to work declined. Each additional extreme precipitation day was associated with a 12.3% decrease in walking and a 3.7% decrease in cycling at baseline, with stronger negative associations over time. Effects were most pronounced in non-metropolitan and Midwestern counties. Findings underscore the importance of climate-resilient transportation planning for sustaining low-carbon, equitable mobility and advancing sustainable development.