Regional changes in precipitation in Europe under an increased greenhouse emissions scenario

Abstract

Regional multi-model ensembles are used to both increase the spatial resolution of the global simulations and to palliate uncertainties arising from different parameterizations and dynamical cores. Here, we present the simulated current (1960-1990) and future (2070-2100) precipitation climatologies using eight Regional Climate Models (RCM) over Europe for an increased greenhouse gases scenario. Analysis of the current climate simulations in terms of the Probability Distribution Functions (PDF) shows noticeable regional differences in the type of precipitation which are in agreement with known precipitation climatologies. For future climate we observe an overall decrease of mean precipitation in most of the Mediterranean regions. A rise in high monthly precipitation amounts appear for all the regions, except for the Iberian peninsula and the Alps. As our analysis embed both spatial and temporal uncertainties in the modeling, our results provide further evidence of a variety of regional patterns within Europe under an increased greenhouse emissions scenario. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.