Role of error catastrophe in transmission ability of virus

Abstract

The role played by error catastrophe is explicitly taken into account in a mathematical formulation to analyze COVID-19 data. The idea is to combine the mathematical genetics formalism of the error catastrophe of mutations in virus gene loci with the standard model of epidemics, which lacks the explicit incorporation of the effect of mutation on the spreading of viruses. We apply this formalism to the case of SARS-CoV-2 virus. We assume the universality of the error catastrophe in the process of analyzing the data. This means that some basic parameter to describe the error catastrophe is independent of which group (country or city) we deal with. Concretely, we analyze Omicron variant data from South Africa and then analyze cases from Japan using the same value of the basic parameter derived in the South Africa analysis. The excellent fit between the two sets of data, one from South Africa and the other from Japan, using the common values of genetic parameters, justifies our assumption of the universality of these parameters.