Market shocks, climate vulnerability, and income loss in informal indigenous food systems: evidence from street vendors in Durban, South Africa

Abstract

Indigenous food crops are vital for nutrition security, climate resilience, and inclusive livelihoods, aligning with Sustainable Development Goals 2 (Zero Hunger), 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), and 13 (Climate Action). Yet, the street vendors who distribute these crops remain highly vulnerable to overlapping socio-environmental disruptions. This study investigates how compound shocks (the 2022 Durban floods, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2021 civil unrest) affect the economic sustainability of indigenous food crop vendors in South Africa. A cross-sectional survey of 34 vendors at Durban’s Warwick Early Morning Market was conducted, with data analyzed using descriptive statistics, and robust regression modeling. Results show that 88% of vendors experienced income loss due to flooding, 71% due to COVID-19, and 68% due to unrest. The regression model identified lack of cold storage (β = 1.53, p < 0.01), crop perishability (β = 1.10, p < 0.05), and exposure to these shocks as statistically significant predictors of income reduction. These findings highlight the urgent need for inclusive urban food governance, investment in post-harvest infrastructure, and support for informal vendors as key actors in achieving SDG-aligned, climate-resilient food systems.