Kapazitätsauslastung im Ausland als Indikator für die deutschen Investitionsgüterexporte

Abstract

The German export industry has traditionally specialised in the supply of capital goods. For this reason, forecasting the exports of capital goods is not only useful for fi rms operating in this sector but also for forecasting total German exports. An important determinant of the demand for capital goods from a theoretical point of view is capacity utilisation. We present an indicator of capacity utilisation in countries that import German goods and show its usefulness for forecasting German capital goods exports. Thus, this indicator is a valuable complement to the set of indicators available for forecasting German exports. © 2012 ZBW and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.