Quarterly Instability Analysis of Injury Severities in Truck Crashes

Abstract

The impact of trucks on road traffic safety has been extensively studied, but the factors influencing truck crash injury severity have not yet been examined from the quarterly perspective. Crash data for Shandong Province in China for 10 years (2012–2021) were reviewed to investigate the transferability of the determinants of the severity of truck crash injuries in four quarters. Three injury severity levels were considered and a random parameters logit model (RPL) considering the heterogeneity of means and variances was constructed to assess the factors affecting the severity of crash injury. The significant variables were explored from the influencing factors of driver, vehicle, crash type, road, environment, and temporal characteristics. A likelihood ratio test was employed to assess the transferability of the crash model over four quarters, and we used marginal effects to analyze the stability of the influencing factors. The results indicated that there was instability among the four quarterly variables that had to be modeled separately. There were also some variables, such as heavy vehicle and multiple-vehicle crashes, that simultaneously affected the severity of truck crash injuries across the four quarters, but the degree of impact was different. The results could enable engineers and policy makers to better formulate management rules and propose appropriate measures according to quarterly changes.