Modeling the effect of rainfall changes to predict population dynamics of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus under future climate conditions

Abstract

The population dynamics of mosquitoes in temperate regions are not as well understood as those in tropical and subtropical regions, despite concerns that vector-borne diseases may be prevalent in future climates. Aedes albopictus, a vector mosquito in temperate regions, undergoes egg diapause while overwintering. To assess the prevalence of mosquito-borne diseases in the future, this study aimed to simulate and predict mosquito population dynamics under estimated future climatic conditions. In this study, we tailored the physiologybased climate-driven mosquito population (PCMP) model for temperate mosquitoes to incorporate egg diapauses for overwintering. We also investigated how the incorporation of the effect of rainfall on larval carrying capacity (into a model) changes the population dynamics of this species under future climate conditions. The PCMP model was constructed to simulate mosquito population dynamics, and the parameters of egg diapause and rainfall effects were estimated for each model to fit the observed data in Tokyo. We applied the global climate model data to the PCMP model and observed an increase in the mosquito population under future climate conditions. By applying the PCMP models (with or without the rainfall effect on the carrying capacity of the A. albopictus), our projections indicated that mosquito population dynamics in the future could experience changes in the patterns of their active season and population abundance. According to our results, the peak population number simulated using the highest CO2 emission scenario, while incorporating the rainfall effect on the carrying capacity, was approximately 1.35 times larger than that predicted using the model that did not consider the rainfall effect. This implies that the inclusion of rainfall effects on mosquito population dynamics has a major impact on the risk assessments of mosquito-borne diseases in the future.