Environmental Variables Influencing Five Speyeria (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) Species' Potential Distributions of Suitable Habitat in the Eastern United States

Abstract

Five closely related species of greater fritillaries occur in North America east of the Mississippi River: regal fritillary (Speyeria idalia Drury [Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae]), Diana fritillary (Speyeria diana Cramer [Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae]), great spangled fritillary (Speyeria cybele Fabricius [Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae]), Atlantis fritillary (Speyeria atlantis Edwards [Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae]), and Aphrodite fritillary (Speyeria aphrodite Fabricius [Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae]). The regal fritillary and Diana fritillary are species of concern, whereas the great spangled fritillary, Atlantis fritillary, and Aphrodite fritillary are relatively abundant within their respective ranges. However, the Atlantis fritillary and Aphrodite fritillary have experienced severe population declines within the last few decades. We created ecological niche models for these five species by combining each species' known occurrences with climate and environmental variables to identify important response variables and determine the potential distribution of suitable habitat for each species. Important climate variables differed among species, although minimum temperature of the coldest month was important for great spangled, Atlantis, and Aphrodite fritillaries. The regal fritillary responded the most to temperature seasonality, whereas the Diana fritillary responded to maximum temperature of warmest month and the great spangled fritillary responded to annual precipitation. Land use was important for all species except the regal fritillary and average annual relative humidity was important for all species except the great spangled fritillary. This study highlights the different climate and habitat needs for greater fritillary species with important implications for how each species is expected to be impacted by climate change. We also demonstrate the value of citizen science and photo sharing websites for providing important data for evaluating species distributions.