Regional frequency analysis methods for evaluating changes in hydrologic extremes

Abstract

A common assumption in frequency analysis is that hydrologic extremes (floods or heavy precipitation) are generated by a random process. This implies that natural climatic variability does not change the distribution of extreme events. A regional frequency analysis approach is proposed to test the hypothesis of randomness over secular timescales. Observed regional occurrences of extreme events are compared to those from a random process. Significant departures may indicate nonrandomness due to climatic variability. Application of the approach to a region in the Southern Plains indicates nonrandomness in annual maximum precipitation.