A model and process for assessing the technology infusion impact on uncertain aeronautical products

Abstract

This paper presents a method for assessing the impact of infusing one or more technologies in aeronautical products in early design phases with their associated uncertainty. The global changes are building an aeronautical scenario which demands products with low costs, better performance, safety, quality and environmentally friendly. To achieve this demand, it is necessary to infuse technologies able to improve the product and/or processes. However, prior to that, it is necessary to bring and deal with information about the impact of technologies infusion to the early phases of the aircraft design and the uncertainty aspects of applying new technologies. This would provide a better decision making on which technologies to use. The proposed approach described herein is a response to the need for assessing and estimating the impact of technology infusion in aeronautical products under the new scenario, improving the decision making process at the aircraft design early phases. This goal is achieved through a process using approaches, techniques and tools that address product and technology perspective, such as System Engineering, Concurrent Engineering, Technology Scouting, Technological Forecasting and Probabilistic Techniques. The proposed method is applied to a theoretical case study illustrating the overall process and results that could be expected.