Statistical method for the evaluation of railway systems modifications

Abstract

Railway production plans daily face random events. Therefore, before setting up modifications for the railway system (changing the network, new signalling system, new timetable, etc.), its robustness to stochastic events must be estimated. Tests cannot actually be carried out, which is why the SNCF uses a traffic simulator developed by its research department. Up to now, the timetable robustness has been estimated by considering a few small incidents and their simulated consequences on train delays. The new approach we are working on consists of taking into account the stochastic dimension in the evaluation of robustness. The methodology is divided into three parts: Identifying randomness to be taken into account when evaluating robustness Studying the robustness of the railway system: determine experimental design carry out simulations aggegrate results Evaluating the lack of precision in the results The aim of this project is to develop the required statistical methods and to design a decision tool following the three steps above. It will help the infrastructure managers to evaluate, in a statistical manner, the robustness of various railway system configurations.