High-resolution gridded livestock projection for western China based on machine learning

Abstract

Accurate high-resolution gridded livestock distribution data are of great significance for the rational utilization of grassland resources, environmental impact assessment, and the sustain-able development of animal husbandry. Traditional livestock distribution data are collected at the administrative unit level, which does not provide a sufficiently detailed geographical description of livestock distribution. In this study, we proposed a scheme by integrating high-resolution gridded geographic data and livestock statistics through machine learning regression models to spatially disaggregate the livestock statistics data into 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution. Three machine learning models, including support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and deep neural network (DNN), were constructed to represent the complex nonlinear relationship between various environmental factors (e.g., land use practice, topography, climate, and socioeconomic factors) and livestock density. By applying the proposed method, we generated a set of 1 km × 1 km spatial distribution maps of cattle and sheep for western China from 2000 to 2015 at five-year intervals. Our projected cattle and sheep distribution maps reveal the spatial heterogeneity structures and change trend of livestock distribution at the grid level from 2000 to 2015. Compared with the traditional census livestock density, the gridded livestock distribution based on DNN has the highest accuracy, with the determinant coefficient (R2) of 0.75, root mean square error (RMSE) of 9.82 heads/km2 for cattle, and the R2 of 0.73, RMSE of 31.38 heads/km2 for sheep. The accuracy of the RF is slightly lower than the DNN but higher than the SVM. The projection accuracy of the three machine learning models is superior to those of the published Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) datasets. Consequently, deep learning has the potential to be an effective tool for high-resolution gridded livestock projection by combining geographic and census data.