Uniformitarian Prediction of Early-Pleistocene Atmospheric CO2

Abstract

Despite recent empirical and modeling advances, atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the early Pleistocene remain uncertain. Using a recently-developed Bayesian paleoclimate model, an ensemble of seven different CO2 records is inferred conditional on reconstructions of past sea level. Five ensemble members give a consensus prediction that CO2 concentrations averaged 241 ppm (238–245 ppm 95% CI) between 2 and 0.8 Ma. Uncertainty estimates account for contributions from orbital forcing, age uncertainties, and other factors. Our consensus prediction aligns well with a compilation of previously published δ11B-based CO2 reconstructions after calibration to late-Pleistocene ice-core CO2 values, as well as with 60 early-Pleistocene CO2 measurements from the Allan Hills in East Antarctica. Our consensus prediction can be definitively tested by obtaining continuous ice-core atmospheric CO2 records that extend into the early Pleistocene.