An Econometric Model of Cattle Inventories

Abstract

Dynamic regression equations are estimated for each beef cattle breeding herd and beef cattle inventories at two levels of aggregation, the U.S. and Montana. The analysis for Montana was utilized as a guide for specification of the national equation to reduce the inference problem associated with letting the sample data help specify the model. Rational lags on average price received by farmers for calves and the ratio of fed beef to corn prices at Omaha constitute the primary explanatory variables. The equations perform exceedingly well over the sample period ( 1950–80) and in post‐sample forecasts with the sample truncated back to 1970.