COASTAL SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM ASSESSMENT IN MUNICIPALITIES: SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING APPLICATION IN LATVIA

Abstract

Understanding functionality of coastal ecosystem and, specifically, coastal socio-ecological system (SES) and its governance from environmental, social and economic point of view at existing state is challenging and complex. Also, analysing future scenarios under various stressors could be solved only at site level or by using complex mathematical systems for the wider area. SES based tool is Systems Analysis Framework (SAF) methodology that includes definition of system borders, relevant system elements, flows and interactions within the system, and understanding of all these aspects. The methodology also includes identification of crucial components, as well as building of model, testing and verifying processes. Coastal ecosystems are very sensitive to various factors, such as environmental changes and, particularly, anthropogenic impacts. Even minor changes in temperature, salinity and nutrient availability can lead to substantial changes in life cycle. For example, the runoff can result in higher nutrient and/or pollutant levels in coastal waters - algae blooms can be dangerous to both humans and marine life. While coastal ecosystems should be prevented by special care, they are still very popular as a tourist destination. That causes requirement to link tourism impact to any other environmental impact and, vice versa, to estimate coastal state as promoter of tourism. This paper describes systemic approach used for the Baltic Sea coast at the local Salacgrīva municipality level in Latvia in the case of topical municipal development scenario of coastal tourism perspective. All impacts are modelled and evaluated with STELLA software.