The South China Sea: the Flashpoint of War Between China and the United States

Abstract

The South China Sea has become a “great power war flashpoint” (GPWF) where China and the United States may directly confront against each other. On the one hand, China seeks to safeguard its expansive maritime claims in this semi-enclosed water body, and to use the sea as part of its evolving military strategy. On the other hand, the United States seeks to promote rules-based order, as part of its Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy, while assuring its allies and partners of its security commitment to the region. Recent uptick in South China Sea tensions gave rise to the spectre of potential armed conflict between Beijing and Washington. This paper argues that the risk of a great power war in the South China Sea is a function of the complex interaction of not only the two great powers US and China but also a critical small state the Philippines, using the “Multiple War Streams Framework” (MWSF).