Price volatility of staple food using ARCH-GARCH model

Abstract

Staple goods are vulnerable to inflation. The fluctuating of the price of staple food is an interesting study for regions wishing to control the inflation rate. The purpose of this study is to analyze the price volatility of several food commodities and to find out the best model as alternative forecasting model that is suitable for the phenomenon of price volatility. This study uses time series data, namely the weekly prices of staple food for the last two years. The econometric model used in this study is the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH-GARCH) model. The ARCH-GARCH model is used to estimate the volatility of the price of the community groups. Staple food studied in this study included 3 commodities, namely rice, chicken, and sugar. The results showed that the prices of the three goods were volatile. Therefore, it is important for local governments to know how to maintain the weekly price of staple foods so that inflation can be controlled.