Evaluation of long-term vegetation trends for northeastern of Iraq: Mosul, Kirkuk and Salah al-Din

Abstract

Climate change is the major global challenge facing water resources managers. In this study, the climate change in term of rainfall fluctuation in the northeastern of Iraq (Mosul, Kirkuk and Salah al-Din) have been investigated using a set of data containing monthly precipitation for period from 1980 to 2010, and MODIS time series images for period from 2000 to 2010. MODIS data have been used to calculate NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index). The highest NDVI values were 0.33 in 2001, 0.39 in 2003 and 0.20 in 2001 for Mosul, Kirkuk and Salah al-Din respectively, while the lowest NDVI values were 0.10 in, 0.19 and 0.13 in 2008 for three mentioned governorates respectively. The NDVI and rainfall was found to be highly correlated 0.83, 0.70 and 0.72 for Mosul, Kirkuk and Salah al-Din respectively. The negative trends in NDVI values mirror non-uniformity of rainfall patterns and moisture shortage during the growing season. The biomass status in 2010 highlighted that prolong of drought conditions in 2008 and 2009 caused losses in soil productivity (decline of soil quality) is cumulative. Results of this study verify needing to use this tools (NDVI), along with data from soil survey, fertility tests, and other monitoring data to identify areas with problem (where, when, and how problems arise) to formulate practical management decisions.