Row–col and bayesian approach seeking to improve the predictive capacity and selection of passion fruit

Abstract

Methods for genetic improvement of semi–perennial species, such as passion fruit, often involve large areas, unbalanced data, and lack of observations. Some strategies can be applied to solve these problems. In this work, different models and approaches were tested to improve the precision of estimates of genetic evaluation models for several characteristics of the passion fruit. A randomized block design (RBD) model was compared to a posteriori correction, adding two factors to the model (post–hoc blocking Row–Col). These models were also combined with the frequentist and Bayesian approaches to identify which combination yields the most accurate results. These approaches are part of a strategic plan in a perennial plant breeding program to select promising genitors of passion to compose the next selection cycle. For Bayesian, we tested two priors, defining different values for the distribution parameters of effect variances of the model. We also performed a cross–validation test to choose a priori values and compare the frequentist and Bayesian approaches using the root mean square error (RMSE) and the correlation between the predicted and observed values, called Predictive capacity of the model (PC). The model with the post–hoc blocking Row–Col design captured the spatial variability for productivity and number of fruits, directly affecting the experimental precision. Both approaches applied to the models showed a similar performance, with predictive capacity and selective efficiency leading to the selection of the same individuals.