Forecasting Climate Change Scenarios in the Bago River Basin, Myanmar

Abstract

Present paper deals with the question whether the intense cyclones have become more frequent over the north Indian Ocean, especially in Bay of Bengal region, posing a more serious threat to the vulnerable coastal population of the region, and whether the temperature trend has backed and stimulated this trend. The results of the study, which has considered the data of 122 years of tropical cyclone frequency over the north Indian Ocean from 1891 to 2013, have shown that there is indeed a trend of enhanced cyclogenesis during four months- May, October, November and December, while November account for the maximum number of severe cyclone hit in the region. Temperature increase over the region has amplified this waxing trend of cyclogenesis alarmingly. The tracks of these cyclones indicate the weight of temperature rise over their intensity and movement and have shown shifting trend towards warmer regions of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu in recent decades.